November 2018

Released October, 2018

<strong>Another Weak Commodity Month, or Potential Game-Changing Bottom?</strong> (Bloomberg Intelligence) -- Commodities appear to be at a discount in a nascent bull-market trend. The normalization process in stock-market volatility and strengthening dollar have suppressed commodity prices, but favorable fundamental and technical conditions should prevail. Broad-market demand vs. supply indicators remain positive as energy and agriculture are near potential floors. WTI crude oil is ending the month near $65 a barrel and good support vs. $75 and multiyear highs in September. If the Brazilian real has bottomed, it should be a game changer for soft commodities and mark a potential bottom for agriculture. Metals are ripe for recovery once the dollar arrests its rally. Midterm elections should play a role. The greenback appears to be pushing on a string vs. U.S. stock outperformance.