Released February, 2019
<strong>Too-Hot Crude Oil, Gold Support: Commodities Favored vs. Dollar</strong>
(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The biggest risks to this year's good start for commodities are a sharp stock-market decline and a dollar rally, though both are unlikely. We expect equity-market volatility to continue recovering moderately, which is a dollar headwind and commodity tailwind, along with reduced trade tensions and China stimulus. Industrial metals appear to be at a discount and near good support in a nascent bull market. U.S. equities are the opposite, approaching good resistance, which makes crude oil more vulnerable. Oversupplied oil should draw responsive sellers.
Trend-ready gold is attracting buyers. We expect the metal to regain the upper hand vs. crude oil, potentially following oil's almost 20% advance this year. Dormant agriculture is starting to ripen with a bottoming Brazilian real.