April 2017

For the sake of the global economic outlook, it may be best if April's weak commodity-market nuances aren't sustained. Down 1.5% for the month and off 3.8% in 2017, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return decline isn't severe, but occurs despite a weaker dollar and led by energy. In giving back about half of this year's gains in April and with gold up, industrial metals will be of concern if these trends continue. Oversupplied energy remains the primary broad commodity pressure factor. Ending the month in the middle of the range, crude oil may need to probe support near $45 a barrel to cleanse overweight longs. Agriculture remained under planting-season pressure, but at high risk of a short-covering rally. If the dollar has peaked, precious metals should remain a leader.